Winners & Losers for these strange and uncertain times

- Sheahan Arnott (@sheahansolo) -

These strange and uncertain times. That phrase has been used more often in the last 6 months than Derek Carr checks down. But these are strange and uncertain times. For 8 NFL teams, they are made even more strange and uncertain by the (relative) stranger under center or uncertainty at the most important position in pro-sports.

What remains consistent, despite the strange and uncertain times, is the importance of familiarity and preparation. Some players will thrive in the face of training camp restrictions and the lack of pre-season. Some will have their eye on winning Comeback Player of the Year in 2021. Others may even try to extend their career by playing for The Rock in the XFL.

CAROLINA

No team will return fewer starting offensive snaps than the Panthers. Add to that, a new Head Coach, new coordinators, a new quarterback, and you’ve got a recipe for Trevor Lawrence in Charlotte.

Winner: Christian McCaffery. It’s no surprise that fresh off the greatest fantasy football season ever, Run CMC will once again be the Carolina offense. He’ll benefit from a coaching staff who will want to keep it simple and the conservative Teddy Bridgewater, who makes the aforementioned Derek Carr look like the second coming of Brett Favre.

Loser: Robby Anderson. Anderson has all the tools to be an elite NFL receiver. He finds himself liberated from the Jets and reunited with his college coach. However, where McCaffery will feast on Teddy Two-Gloves’ short throws, Anderson will starve.

DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel both offer more playmaking ability closer to the line of scrimmage, and Anderson could be left clearing space for the players to succeed underneath.

CHICAGO

The Foles vs Trubisky showdown was shaping up to be the most intense battle Chicago’s seen since Bugs Moran vs Al Capone on Valentine’s Day 1929. It’s hard to know who will get the nod in Week 1. In all likelihood, we will see both get significant snaps this season but, some clarity in the area would help Bill Swerski’s Superfans sleep more soundly at night.

Winner: Ryan Nall. If you can call the supposed third-string running back in a questionable offense a winner, then Ryan Nall is it.

The Bears are very thin at running back. Nall appears to be in the box seat to hold his position on the roster with the zippy Artavis Pierce landing on the COVID list and Napoleon Maxwell facing the Waterloo of being cut.

Loser: Everyone who isn’t Allen Robinson or Anthony Miller. No matter who is throwing the ball, they’ll be throwing at those two. The rest of the offense, Montgomery and Cohen included, will need reps that they just won’t get.

Matt Nagy’s offense lost 800 yards and 16 touchdowns in his second season and the lack of face-to-face time and practice sessions won’t help him return to the levels of his rookie season.

CINCINATTI

Can a son be prodigal if he’s not technically returning? If he can, then Joe Burrow is exactly that. While the Bengals have a lot of familiar faces in the building, the preseason would have been critical to making sure the NFL was not quite as exotic to their new Tiger King, Joe.

Winner: Tyler Boyd. Boyd has developed into a productive NFL receiver and his presence on the inside will be invaluable for Burrow.

Justin Jefferson did his best work in the slot for LSU and Burrow fed him the ball to the tune of 1500+ yards and 18 touchdowns. It won’t be a surprise if Boyd tops his 148-target, 90-catch 2019 season.

Loser: John Ross. Burrow and J’Marr Chase connected for 1780 yards and 20 touchdowns last season. Thunderbolt Ross would have been hoping he could forge a similar relationship with his new QB and land himself a rich second contract in Cincinnati or somewhere else in the league.

The upside is still there for Ross owners but if he can’t get on the same page as Burrow then his career will be reserved for draft bust videos on YouTube.

DENVER

Maybe the lack of preseason will be a blessing in disguise for Drew Lock. Word has it that following his performance last pre-season, Lock was due to be flown to North Korea to see if he could overthrow the regime there too. But, when he hit the field in Week 12 last year, Lock delivered. Now he has Pat Shurmer to help him develop. Unfortunately, they do not have a proper chance to implement his new gameplan.

Winner: Courtland Sutton. Sutton suits Lock’s style to a tee. When all else fails, Lock can chuck it up and he knows his big receiver is as likely to pull it in as anyone in the league.

Sutton’s size and contested-catch ability make Lock’s numbers look better on paper than your eye might tell you. The passing game arms race in the AFC should help bolster his fantasy numbers week to week.

Loser: Phillip Lindsay. How did John Elway reward Lindsay for being the only UDFA ever to rush for 1000 yards in his first 2 seasons? They brought in Melvin Gordon. Lindsay and Gordon have different skill sets, but it’s Gordon who will likely see more work in the red-zone.

Lindsay’s targets also sharply decreased once Lock took over, as he’d rather make a play down the field than take the conservative option.

LA CHARGERS

No fans in the stands won’t make a difference for the Chargers amirite? We’ll get an up-close look at the best-uniformed team in SoFi Stadium on Hard Knocks, so we’ll get to see a bit more of Justin Herbert than we will the other rookie quarterbacks. But who knows how many first-team reps will he get?

Winner: Tyrod Taylor. If you’re in a 2QB or Superflex league, Tyrod might be the best, cheapest asset you can buy this year. He’s the guy Lynn wants to run his offense, and without a lights-out performance from Herbert to work the fans into a frenzy, Tyrod should hold his spot under center at least until the Chargers are out of playoff contention.

In his 3 full seasons as the starter in Buffalo, he finished no worse than QB16, and his athleticism netted him at least 400 yards and 4 TDs on the ground each season.

Loser: Austin Ekeler. Ekeler emerged as one of the most dynamic pass-catching RBs in the league last season, but with the statuesque Philip Rivers being replaced by the more mobile Tyrod, Ekeler may lose some of his check-down volume.

Ekeler saw 108 targets last year, and while Lynn will want to get the ball in his hands, he’ll struggle to get that same volume if Tyrod’s third read is scrambling rather than Ekeler.

MIAMI

The Dolphins find themselves in probably the best position of the 3 teams who drafted quarterbacks in the top 10, despite Chan Gailey replacing Chad O’Shea as OC. The real wrinkle with Miami will come when it’s time for Tua to take over. The offense needs to adjust for a lefty QB with limited practice snaps under their belt.

Winner: DeVante Parker. It finally happened! Parker had a breakout season! He’ll have an easier time trying to prove he’s not a one-season wonder the longer Ryan Fitzpatrick stays at the top of the Dolphins’ depth chart.

Fitz’s experience will be even more valuable this season. He and Parker formed a pretty handy combination down the stretch last year including torching DPOY Stephon Gilmore for 8/137 in Week 17

Loser: Matt Breida and Jordan Howard. Miami might have deployed Ray Finkle, a 72-year-old Larry Csonka, and an actual dolphin as their running back corps last season and done just as well running the ball. PFF ranked Miami’s o-line as the worst coming into this season. With as many as 4 new faces on the line, and very little chance to build chemistry, it could be another slog for the Miami running backs.

Throw in the potential switch to a left-handed QB, two players cannibalizing each other’s value, Howard and Brieda aren’t necessarily as appealing as they appear.

NEW ENGLAND

One GOAT might be gone but, the other remains. While you can still see the cutoff hoodie prowling the practice fields of Foxboro, the Patriots will remain the best prepared and most professional outfit in the NFL. The Pats have used the first month of the season to blow out the cobwebs for a long time now. Provided Cam can get up to speed with their notoriously difficult offensive system, they should be ok in the long run.

Winner: N’Keal Harry. Dirty Harry has been working hard over the off-season. His physical, contested-catch style should mesh better with Cam than it did with Brady. If he can build a nice rapport with Newton in the limited off-season reps, he’ll see his number called more often this season. Cam’s off-script plays may go in his direction as well.

Loser: James White and Julian Edelman. Strangely the two players who probably know the system best are the two biggest losers. They were Brady’s safety valves - reliably seeing the field the same way he did.

Similar to Ekeler and Taylor in LA, where Brady checked down, Cam will take off. Meaning the two PPR favorites will lose out on all-important volume.

TAMPA BAY

If New England is the best prepared and most professional team then Tom Brady is the avocado-eating personification of “The Patriot Way”. Now in Tampa Bay, Brady finds himself in foreign surroundings, with restrictions around practice and antithesis of the only NFL Head Coach he’s known. But Bruce Arians is as canny as he is home-spun. He’ll be leaning on every snap of experience between him and his new QB to make sure his team can compete.

Winner: Rob Gronkowski. The fantasy community is divided on Gronk’s value after a year of life straight out of HBO’s Ballers. But, it’s his relationship with Brady that shines through here.

Brady relies on his receivers reading the field the same way he does. Now in n a new environment, with limited time to work with his new teammates, old reliable Gronk will fit like a cut-off hoodie, especially in the red zone.

Loser: Mike Evans. Evans was made to play for a gunslinger. He thrived playing with Jameis and FitzMagic. Just throw it up and he’ll come down with it to the tune of 1000+ yards every season.

Now he’ll have Brady putting the ball right where he wants it. Gone are the 30- and 40-yard downfield jump-balls. Evans will continue to produce when given the chance, but Winston is a better QB for fantasy players than Tommy Touchdown.