Overvalued/Undervalued - Week 4

Written by: Justin Dodds (@JustinDoddsFF)
Graphics: Justin Barber (@justin_b)

Well, what goes up must come down, as they say, and we sure had a down week last week. Let’s take a look at the results:

Justin Herbert: ECR QB9, My Rank QB14, Actual QB2 🆇
Ben Roethlisberger: ECR QB22, My Rank QB18, Actual QB23 🆇
Clyde Edwards-Helaire: ECR RB18, My Rank RB25, Actual RB17 🆇
Chase Edmonds: ECR RB21, My Rank RB16, Actual RB25 🆇
Marquise Brown: ECR WR26, My Rank WR31, Actual WR55 ✅
Chase Claypool: ECR WR28, My Rank WR23, Actual WR17 ✅
Tyler Higbee: ECR TE10, My Rank TE14, Actual TE9 🆇
Dallas Goedert: ECR TE11, My Rank TE8, Actual TE17 🆇

I won’t take too much time going into these picks, but there are a few small takeaways from these games that I think are important.

First, Roethlisberger looks done. I emphasize the ‘looks’ done because Ben hasn’t exactly been the epitome of physical fitness at the quarterback position for quite some time. The Steelers seem lost on offense, but I do think they still have some value, it just looks pretty bad right now.

Second, Marquise Brown is going to be hard to trust for me, especially if you are only starting 2RB, 2WR, 1 Flex, because his volatility on a week-to-week basis is going to be hard to support. The inconsistencies of both Lamar and Brown are going to make it difficult to project fantasy performances for probably all Ravens wide receivers.

Here is the updated record against ECR :

Let’s get started on Week 4:

QUARTERBACK

Overvalued: Josh Allen, BUF (QB5 vs. ECR QB1)
This one is simply an upside adjustment, and only really relevant for DFS. I’m not quite sure where the upside is for this one, as the game will have to be relatively close for someone to finish as the top quarterback on the week, but this game will not be that. The Bills are currently 17 point favorites, at home, against a team that allows pretty much anything. I think this game is a blowout, which will mean that unless Josh Allen scores the first four touchdowns, he won’t be playing long enough to score enough fantasy points to drive himself to the QB1 position. Allen is still a locked and loaded QB1, as he is every week, but I just don’t see the upside for the overall QB1.

Undervalued: Aaron Rodgers, GB (QB5 vs. ECR QB11)
I think this adjustment boils down to the way that I believe the Packers will be able to move the ball. The Steelers are currently an average defense against quarterbacks for fantasy, while they are the second-most difficult matchup for running backs. I believe the Packers will have to rely on Rodgers to move the ball, and ultimately punch the ball into the endzone himself, or through the air. This leads me to believe there’s not only a solid floor here because, well, it’s Aaron Rodgers, but also some solid upside in a matchup where he’ll likely have to pass a decent amount due to the Steelers strength against the run game.

RUNNING BACK

Overvalued: Aaron Jones, GB (RB12 vs. ECR RB5)
This one is basically the same justification as is with Aaron Rodgers being undervalued. I’m concerned that Jones will have difficulty running the ball here, which limits his floor pretty significantly. Jones is still used pretty heavily through the air, but I think you’ll need a solid chunk of that work in this game to justify the RB5 ranking, and I’m not sure I see it. There’s also the issue of goal line work, which Jones normally gets a good amount of, but against a team that has allowed zero rushing touchdowns so far this year, I doubt we’ll see many attempts from Jones in the red zone this week. Jones is still a solid play this week due to his passing volume, as I was mentioning, but I’d temper your expectations here.

Undervalued: Miles Sanders, PHI (RB13 vs. ECR RB19)
I really hate picking any Eagles running back (whoever they decide that is) for anything on a weekly basis, because it seems that no matter who the shot-caller is, Eagles running back production is almost impossible to predict. I think this game plan has to include some Miles Sanders and Jalen Hurts running the ball here. The Chiefs defense isn’t that great, and now they have some key playmakers like Chris Jones missing the game due to injury. I think this can be an area to exploit the Chiefs defense as the Eagles are quite good at running the read-option or RPO (run-pass-option) where the defensive end becomes vulnerable. I think we get a solid dose of Miles Sanders this week, and he sneaks into the end-zone for a solid week of fantasy production.

WIDE RECEIVER

Overvalued: Deebo Samuel, SF (WR25 vs. ECR WR18)
The Deebo hype train has been a little over-ambitious the past few weeks, frequently ranking him as a locked-in WR2 when I just don’t see how we can automatically be putting him in that spot. If you take out the one big play Samuel had in week 1, we’re likely looking at two low-end WR2 finishes (24-30), and a WR4-5 finish (WR50). Now that Aiyuk is becoming more involved, and Kittle has gotten his legs under him, I’d expect this trend to continue, and I’m not so confident ranking him as a middling WR2 on a weekly basis. I’d expect Deebo to finish as a low-end WR2 or flex option this week at around 12-16 PPR fantasy points, while ECR is projecting an 18-22 point finish.

Undervalued: Diontae Johnson, PIT (WR21 vs. ECR WR32)
Johnson’s ECR should continue to rise as more analysts update their rankings, but I believe he’ll end up around WR30, while he currently sits at WR45. Last week, Najee Harris saw 19 targets, which is insane for any player, let alone a running back. Why is that relevant? I believe the main reason for this was because Ben didn’t have his typical safety net in Diontae Johnson, then also lost JuJu in that game. Just like last season, Johnson will always see around 10 targets. In fact, in the 2020 and 2021 season, Johnson has seen less than 10 targets in just two games out of 14 that he’s played from start to finish. That is consistent volume, and that kind of attention is what gets consistent WR2 finishes. This week, Johnson gets the Packers, which will likely result in a negative game-script for the Steelers. This means Johnson should again see quite a few targets and overall utilization also considering the loss of Chase Claypool.

TIGHT END

Overvalued: Mark Andrews, BAL (TE10 vs. ECR TE5)
With the majority of the tight-ends in this league, projecting fantasy finishes is ultimately about potential volume, and matchup. Andrews has never been a high volume tight-end, and his matchup is the third-worst this week being in Denver. Through 3 games, the Broncos have allowed just 7 receptions for 55 yards and zero touchdowns to opposing tight-ends. The Ravens will likely be looking elsewhere for offensive production this week.

Undervalued: Noah Fant, DEN (TE5 vs. ECR TE8)
I’m not huge on Fant, but unlike Mark Andrews in this game, Fant will likely be depended on for a good chunk of the offensive production. The Broncos are now without Jeudy, Hamler, and potentially Melvin Gordon against a team that has one of the better secondaries in the league. Fant has been solid this year, besides the last game against the Jets where he was hardly needed. Fant has some solid upside this week in a game that could be a little more competitive than some think, resulting in the Broncos receiving group getting a bunch of work.

Known as “The Walmart Josh Allen”, Justin Dodds is a writer and occasional podcast co-host for Sleeperwire. He made a name for himself in the industry finishing the 2020 season as the 41st best ranker on FantasyPros, and #1 most accurate on BettingPros. Justin hails from the Great White North and is a proud Pats fan who hopes one day to have twin sons named Wayne Gretzky Dodds and Thomas Brady Dodds.

Follow Justin - @JustinDoddsFF